• Question: is Covid-19 going to infect 80 percent of the UK work force over a period of time as Boris Johnson has said

    Asked by anon-250437 on 12 Mar 2020.
    • Photo: Katrina Wesencraft

      Katrina Wesencraft answered on 12 Mar 2020:

      I saw this news report – they think in the worst-case scenario, up to 80% of the population could get infected. The important thing to remember is that most people get a mild form of the illness. The important thing is that even people with mild symptoms need to isolate themselves so that those who are more susceptible (older people, people who are immunocompromised, people with other lung conditions) don’t end up catching it. Because of this, the government are preparing for up to a fifth, so 20%, of the UK work force to be off at the same time.

    • Photo: M S

      M S answered on 12 Mar 2020:

      I think we can’t make assumptions like this yet. Based on interventions we could drastically lower this number

    • Photo: Ioana Grigoras

      Ioana Grigoras answered on 13 Mar 2020:

      I don’t really know a lot about infectious diseases, so I don’t really know. Even if it was true, we can make it better by starting to impose measures that would limit the virus spread: social distancing, wash your hands regularly, sneeze in your elbow or a tissue, don’t go out if you’re sick. We can contain it if we follow the guidelines and take the necessary precautions.

    • Photo: Nuru Noor

      Nuru Noor answered on 15 Mar 2020:

      It’s difficult to know at this stage but this might do, as a worst case scenario. The key thing is making sure to wash hands, limit contact with others especially large groups and to look after yourselves in this trying and tesitng time! Good question 👍

    • Photo: Sophie Arthur

      Sophie Arthur answered on 15 Mar 2020:

      I think this is the estimate if we don’t change what we are doing. We can also reduce this number by following all the guidance.

      I think there are also lots of people who could be carrying it and never really present any symptoms so they may have been counted in this estimate. Its a very complicated situation with lots of things that could have a role

    • Photo: Kate Mitchell

      Kate Mitchell answered on 16 Mar 2020: last edited 18 Mar 2020 7:19 pm

      Its hard to predict anything (especially the future!) – we haven’t been told the details about what that prediction is based on; some have suggested its a ‘worst case’ scenario. And of course, it could be affected by different health policies in the future.

      I’m updating my answer (18th March): I believe this number is based on modelling which has now been released. 80% is a prediction of what would happen in the unlikely scenario that there were no control measures introduced and nobody changed their behaviour. As control measures have been introduced and people are changing their behaviour, we would expect fewer people to get infected.

    • Photo: Sarah Clarke

      Sarah Clarke answered on 18 Mar 2020:

      My understand of the information is that 80% of people being infected is what the government is using as their “worse case scenario” to enable them to plan for how they tackle the virus. That doesn’t mean it is what is going to happen – it just provides an estimate from which they can plan.

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